XRP Supply Shock? Billions Leave Binance But Price Struggles

XRP reserves on Binance dropped 45% in a year, while on-chain data shows patterns similar to 2022’s downturn, raising investor caution.

Billions of dollars in XRP have quietly moved off Binance over the past year. This large shift in supply is drawing attention across the crypto market. On-chain data suggests some patterns may be repeating, while price pressure continues to weigh on XRP.

XRP Supply Drops 45% on Binance

Binance’s XRP reserves have fallen by nearly 45% in just 12 months. According to analyst Niels, the holdings dropped from $10.16 billion to $5.55 billion. That change reflects a massive transfer of XRP out of the exchange and into private wallets.

This pattern suggests fewer holders are looking to sell in the near term. The steady decline in exchange balances may point to longer-term storage becoming more common. As Niels explained,

Something big is happening with $XRP supply.

Binance alone has seen its XRP reserves drop almost 45% in one year.

From $10.16B down to $5.55B.
That’s a massive amount of coins leaving exchanges and moving into long-term storage.

Less supply on exchanges usually means one… pic.twitter.com/P30AEL7JHI

— Niels (@Web3Niels) January 20, 2026

Beneath the surface, on-chain data from Glassnode shows that XRP’s current setup looks similar to early 2022. At that time, prices dropped from $0.78 to below $0.30 over several months. The current structure shows newer investors buying at levels below those held by long-term holders.

Glassnode noted,

“Psychological pressure on top buyers continues to build over time.”

This dynamic appears when recent buyers hold gains, while older positions sit at a loss. If prices don’t recover, some long-term holders may choose to exit.

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Since mid-2025, the $2 price zone has triggered large realized losses, according to Glassnode. Repeated tests of that area have lined up with $500 million to $1.2 billion in weekly losses. It has become a level where many traders choose to sell.

Price Slides as Volume Declines

XRP reached a multi-month high above $2.40 earlier in January but has since fallen back. The token lost the $2 support on Monday and dipped to $1.84 before recovering to around $1.90. Over the last 7 days, XRP has declined more than 11% (per CoinGecko’s data).

Analyst Steph Is Crypto wrote,

“$XRP price weakness is happening on declining volume — just like 2021–2022.”

A drop in trading volume during a downtrend may show reduced interest from buyers, which can slow momentum further.

Meanwhile, US-based XRP ETFs saw their largest outflows to date this week, as we recently reported. Data shows investor activity pulling back sharply, with more capital leaving the market amid rising global tensions and economic uncertainty.

Compression Phase May Precede a Move

Analyst Egrag Crypto shared a chart of XRP/BTC that shows compressed price action, along with tight moving averages. This kind of setup, known as compression, can lead to expansion once a clear direction forms. Egrag explained,

“This is not noise. This is structure tightening.”

According to their post, XRP is now moving between support and resistance in what they described as a bullish rectangle. Though not yet in an uptrend, the setup reflects possible accumulation after a decline.