New study shows excess leverage flushed in Q4, as realized price metrics and profitability data point to a healthier Bitcoin structure.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a very tight range below $79,000 amidst macro tailwinds. Most crypto assets followed a similar trajectory. But experts are constructive on BTC.
In a joint report by Coinbase and Glassnode, the firms stated that the largest cryptocurrency appears to be on firmer ground than many altcoins that are still dealing with the fallout from last October’s sharp selloff.
Bitcoin’s Healthier Start to 2026
Coinbase and Glassnode believe that the crypto markets are entering 2026 in a healthier condition after excess leverage was largely flushed out of the system during the fourth quarter. The two firms said this view is reflected across several on-chain technical indicators. One of them, the entity-adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), revealed that investor sentiment fell from the “Belief” phase to “Anxiety” following the October sell-off and stayed there through the quarter.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s realized price has continued to rise into early 2026. This shows that the market’s overall cost basis is increasing over time. Bitcoin’s spot price remains above this realized price, which means the average holder is still in profit rather than at a loss.
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which compares the current market price to the realized price, is around 1.5. This indicates that the crypto asset is trading at roughly a 50% premium to its on-chain cost basis.
On-Chain Signals
During the fourth quarter of 2025, the share of BTC supply held in profit fell sharply. The report explained that this drop suggests that prices between $80,000 and $85,000 may have served as an accumulation zone for model-based strategies. The report also pointed to changes in dormant and active supply.
Bitcoin supply that moved within the past three months rose by 37% in the fourth quarter, while the share of supply that had not moved for more than a year fell by 2%. This change indicates that the market may have entered a high-velocity distribution phase during that period.
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There has also been a decline in the Puell Multiple, which fell to 0.9 in the fourth quarter. This indicates that miners were earning about 10% less than the average of the previous year.
Additionally, Net long-term holder positions and changes in exchange balances, together, signaled profit-taking between July and September. But similar behavior was not clearly observed during the fourth quarter of 2025.
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