“If the 4-year cycle is still in play, BTC will dump to $32,000 in January,” one analyst predicted.
Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied in the opening days of the year (for now), fueling optimism among bulls that 2026 could be a highly rewarding period.
Others believe the following 12 months will be generous only for the bears, envisioning a severe pullback.
The Bullish Scenario
The largest cryptocurrency had its shining moments in 2025, and its price reached a new record of over $126,000 at the beginning of October. However, the following months were brutal, and BTC closed the year at around $87,000, marking an annual loss. In fact, this was the first time the asset ended a post-halving year in the red.
Numerous analysts seem unconcerned about this, though, predicting that 2026 will be much more successful. X user KAY noted the latest resurgence to over $90,000, claiming that BTC’s “Adam and Eve” pattern is in play. The chat resembles a short dump followed by a rounding bottom formation. According to the market observer, BTC now needs a strong breakout above $94,000, after which “the bulls will be back in control.”
JAVON MARKS and Crypto GEMS were even more optimistic. The former sees the asset rising to a new all-time high of $126,200, whereas the latter expects it to top around $210,000 sometime this year.
Earlier this week, Ali Martinez revealed that approximately 20,000 BTC had left exchanges in the past week alone. The USD equivalent of the stash is almost $1.8 billion, and it supports the bullish thesis. Shifting from centralized exchanges to self-custody methods reduces selling pressure, while increased exchange balances could be interpreted as a pre-sale step.
Major Dump Incoming?
Some analysts stand in the opposite corner, forecasting that 2026 could be a devastating year for BTC. X user CryptoBullet said the asset’s 2025 looks “very bad,” rejecting the possibility that it could reach a fresh peak in 2026.
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“If you think that wasn’t the Cycle Top and in 2026 BTC will somehow go to a new ATH, you’re an idiot,” they added.
According to many experts, Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle may no longer be valid. However, if the pattern remains intact, some analysts warn that a sharp price collapse could occur as early as this month. X user Chiefy, for instance, commented:
“If the 4-year cycle is still in play, BTC will dump to $32,000 in January. Do you think you’re prepared for this scenario?”
For their part, Crypto Caeser forecasted that BTC may trade in the wide range between $80,687 and $98,880 “for a while.”
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