Bitcoin is facing a fresh downside risk due to a potential U.S. military strike on Iran, as President Donald Trump suggested. The leading crypto is also at risk of further decline, as CryptoQuant flagged weakness in key on-chain support levels.
Bitcoin At Risk As Trump Weighs Limited Strike On Iran
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are about to face additional stress amid geopolitical risks. President Trump is deliberating on a limited military attack against Iran, according to a WSJ report. The action is aimed at forcing Tehran into negotiating a nuclear agreement.
Trump said that he would decide his next Iran-related moves in 10 days. There have been numerous proposals for small- and large-scale strikes from senior aides. The U.S. has relocated F-35 and F-22 planes to the Middle East with a possible intention to strike Iran. There is also the approach of a second aircraft carrier. Those developments increase the likelihood of a larger military conflict.
The crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to extreme fear levels amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Bitcoin and the broader crypto market cap notably fell following earlier reports of a potential U.S.-Iran war.
Escalations between the U.S. and Iran cause Bitcoin to retest key support levels, with experts warning of a liquidation cascade if the leading crypto drops below $60,000. Data from Polymarket shows that the likelihood that Trump will attack Iran by March 31st is at 63%.
Whales Put Sell Pressure On BTC
Analytics platform CryptoQuant noted that the crypto exchange whale ratio has hit an all-time high of 0.64, its highest since 2015. The top ten wallets now hold around 64% of the exchange inflows. Usually, a rise in this ratio signals increased selling pressure from large holders.
Burak Kesmeci, a CryptoQuant analyst, indicated that Bitcoin price has entered a typical bearish stage after it lost the $88,700 cost basis for new large holders. The next support zones are now defined by the realized price clusters. The closest downside level is at $58,700, while a break below this level would lead to the $54,700 realized price level.
According to separate CryptoQuant data, approximately 46% of the Bitcoin supply in circulation is in unrealized loss at this time. That is the highest level since the end of 2022 and indicates a negative sentiment. Meanwhile, On-chain analyst Willy Woo warned that BTC is just in Phase 1 of this bear market. Woo contended that this is supported by increasing volatility and a drop in liquidity.
Glassnode provided some context to the bear market outlook for Bitcoin. It said that all efforts to push the coin to $70,000 since early February have failed due to demand exhaustion. As the analytics platform revealed, realized profit of over $5 million per hour has led the price to reject the $70,000 mark.
