The U.S.–Iran War over the weekend has pushed oil higher and led to fears of a Monday market sell-off. Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, threatening 20% of global oil flows. As the U.S.–Iran War escalates across the Gulf, crypto traders debate whether another crash would follow when traditional markets reopen.
U.S.–Iran: Strait Blockade Drive Oil Shock
Analyst Crypto Patel noted the IRGC declaration that no vessel could pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tankers stopped completely, which has been unprecedented in modern history. Notably, 20% to 30% of global oil flows through that waterway.
Patel expects oil to open between $80 and $100 on Monday, which could put the crypto market at risk. He added prices could spike toward $120 to $150 if disruption continues. He also estimated recession probability rising to 40% to 50%.
Broker IG data indicated U.S. crude could jump 9% at the next session open. Meanwhile, Anthony Pompliano projected crude and gold would rise sharply. He also forecast lower equities, stronger Treasuries, and a firmer U.S. dollar.
Benjamin Cowen added that past business cycles often ended after oil spikes. He said rising geopolitical conflict could again pressure economic activity. Consequently, oil now anchors the broader Monday crash debate.
Monday Market Open in Focus as Crypto Swings
As oil expectations surged, crypto markets turned volatile. According to CoinGlass, liquidations exceeded $651 million within 24 hours. However, Bitcoin reclaimed the $68,000 level after sharp intraday swings.
Ted Pillows questioned whether a “Monday dump” would follow. Patel warned the Monday market open could bring a real shock. He urged traders not to buy the dip yet, citing elevated war risk.
As Coingape reported, the crypto market recovered. Bitcoin first dropped $2,800, erasing $58 billion in market value. It later rebounded $3,900 to near $67,000. Continued bombing could drive further volatility into Monday.
Weekend Rotation Into Commodities
With traditional markets closed, traders turned to crypto derivatives for exposure. Hyperliquid recorded an 8% surge in Brent-linked contracts as hedging intensified. Gold perpetual futures also hit new local highs. Meanwhile, Polymarket bets have led to insider trading speculation as crypto traders have reportedly netted $1.2M.
Patel argued Bitcoin currently acts as a risk asset, not a safe haven. He said stablecoins serve as capital preservation tools during conflict. He added that de-escalation signals must emerge before positioning shifts.
Meanwhile, reports from Iranian state media claimed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes. The IRGC vowed severe punishment, while President Donald Trump confirmed developments on Truth Social. As the U.S.–Iran War continues, oil prices will likely be affected, possibly leading to a Monday crypto dump.
