Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day MA, spot and institutional demand have remained weak, and liquidity has tightened; all signs of a bear market.
The crypto market is currently in a bearish season, as confirmed by on-chain indicators. Demand has waned, liquidity is tightening, and technical structure shows downside risk.
The market research firm CryptoQuant has released a detailed assessment of the bear cycle, explaining just how much the bears have dominated.
BTC Falls Below 365-Day MA
According to the report, the CryptoQuant Bull Score Index, which hovered around 80 (the bullish territory) as bitcoin (BTC) peaked at $126,000 in early October, is now sitting at zero. The index entered bearish territory after the October 10 liquidation event, which resulted in $19 billion in losses. BTC was still trading around $110,000 at the time; as the asset’s price hit $75,000, the index fell to zero.
At the time of writing, data from CoinMarketCap showed BTC changing hands below $68,000, with a 24-hour decline of at least 7%. Bitcoin’s price has declined 23% since it fell below its 365-day moving average (MA) on November 12, 2025. The last time BTC fell below this metric was in March 2022. Analysts say the asset’s current performance is worse than the early 2022 bear phase.
With technical structure confirming downside risk, BTC has fallen below the lower band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price. The level acted as the ultimate support during the bull market. The next support zone now lies between $70,000 and $60,000.
Demand Weakens, Liquidity Tightens
Amid the downturn in prices, spot and institutional demand have remained weak. The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium has been negative since mid-October, indicating weaker demand in the U.S. than in the rest of the world.
Furthermore, the U.S. spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) market is witnessing a reversal in demand. This time last year, the products had loaded up more than 46,000 BTC; however, they are now net sellers, having offloaded about 15,000 BTC so far. Their sales have created a demand gap of more than 50,000 BTC, contributing to selling pressure.
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In the last four months, Bitcoin’s spot demand annual growth has fallen 93% from 1.1 million to 77,000 BTC. This shows that most of this cycle’s demand growth has passed.
On the liquidity front, the 60-day growth of Tether’s (USDT) market cap has turned negative (-$133 million) for the first time since October 2023. The stablecoin’s expansion peaked at $15.9 billion in late October 2025. The reversal is typical of bear market cycles.
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